Past Probability and Statistics:

**Time & Location**: All talks are on Wednesdays in Dinwiddie 102 at 3:00 PM unless otherwise noted.

**Organizer**: Scott McKinley and Swati Patel

January 11

**Greg Handy**University of Utah

**Abstract**:

Our results are derived from considering our system in several ways: as a full spatial diffusion process with recharging traps on the boundary; as a continuous-time Markov process approximating the original system; and lastly as a system of ODEs in a mean-field approximation. Considering the full spatial diffusion process, we prove that the total expected number of the captured particles has an upper-bound of the order of log n. We then apply our approximations to investigate time courses for the expected number and higher ordered statistics of captured particles. We find that the amount of variation observed in the total number of captured particles varies non-monotonically with the mean recharge time. Lastly, we combine these results together to predict stochastic properties of intracellular signals resulting from receptor activation.

February 13

**Chris Miles**NYU

**Abstract**:

Cells send and receive signals in the form of diffusing particles that search for target sites called receptors. This mechanism has received great theoretical interest for over 40 years, but a more recent fact that receptors themselves diffuse along a surface has largely been neglected. This raises the natural question: does the target diffusing help or hurt the ability of a diffusing particle to locate it? We'll modify a classical PDE model into a PDE with stochastic boundary conditions, which we'll study using matched asymptotic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations.

February 27

**Speaker**Institution

**Abstract**: TBA

March 13

**Ray Bai**Institution

**Abstract**:

We introduce the partial-sum limit theorems for a class of stationary sequences exhibiting both heavy tails and long-range dependence. The stationary sequences are constructed using heavy-tailed multiple stochastic integrals and conservative null dynamical systems. The limits are represented by multiple stables integrals, where the integrands involve the local times of the intersections of stationary stable regenerative sets. This is a joint work with Takashi Owada and Yizao Wang.

March 20

**Jinsu Kim**UC Irvine

**Abstract**:

Abstract :

A reaction network is a graphical configuration that describes an interaction between species (molecules). If the abundances of the network system is small, then the randomness inherent in the molecular interactions is important to the system dynamics, and the abundances are modeled stochastically as a jump by jump fashion continuous-time Markov chain. One of challenging issues facing researchers who study biological systems is the often extraordinarily complicated structure of their interaction networks. Thus, how to characterize network structures that induce characteristic behaviors of the system dynamics is one of the major open questions in this literature. In this talk, I will provide recent issues and discoveries on stochastically modeled reaction networks. Specifically, we will focus on existence of stationary distributions and the convergence rate for the process to its stationary distribution.

March 27

**Ilya Timofeyev**University of Houston

**Abstract**:

Radical shifts in the genetic composition of large cell populations are rare events with quite low probabilities, which direct numerical simulations generally fail to evaluate accurately. We develop an applicable large deviations framework for a class of Markov chains used to model genetic evolution of bacterial populations. We illustrate this framework by computing the most likely evolutionary paths describing emergence of genotypes with lower fitness in realistic parameter settings.

April 3

**Farzad Sabzikar**Institution

**Abstract**: TBA

April 10

**Daniel Coombs**University of British Columbia

**Abstract**: TBA

April 17

**Speaker**Institution

**Abstract**: TBA

April 24

**Speaker**Institution

**Abstract**: TBA

May 1

**Speaker**Institution

**Abstract**: TBA

May 8

**Speaker**Institution

**Abstract**: TBA

Mathematics Department, 424 Gibson Hall, New Orleans, LA 70118 504-865-5727 math@math.tulane.edu