Natural Disasters

Prof. Stephen A. Nelson

Homework Assignment VI. Weather Exerices

1. Go to the following link to download and print a hurricane tracking map to be used for this exercise - http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Natural_Disasters/trackingmap.pdf 
   
   Once you have the tracking map, plot the following hurricane coordinates for Hurricane Hunter on the map.  Note that the coordinates refer to the position of the center of the eye of the hurricane.  At each latitude and longitude also write the wind velocity in red, the storm center velocity in blue, and the day in September in black (for example - write 3 for Sept. 3).  Make sure you write them as small as you can and still read them. (2 points) 

   Track of Hurricane Hunter
   Date	Time	Latitude (N)	Longitude (W)	Max Wind Velocity (miles/hr)	Storm Center Velocity (miles/hr)
   Sept. 3	12:00 PM	10.3	26.9	41	8
   Sept. 4	12:00 PM	11.0	33.1	43	8
   Sept. 5	12:00 PM	12.2	39.4	52	8
   Sept. 6	12:00 PM	13.6	45.8	66	8
   Sept. 7	12:00 PM	15.2	52.9	74	6
   Sept. 8	12:00 PM	16.8	59.5	76	10
   Sept. 9	12:00 PM	19.1	64.7	77	12
   Sept. 10	12:00 PM	21.2	68.1	88	10
   Sept. 11	06:00 AM	21.2	70.0	110	15
   Sept. 11	06:00 PM	21.2	74.0	128	15
   Sept. 12	06:00 AM	22.0	78.0	135	18
   Sept. 12	06:00 PM	23.0	80.0	144	18
   Sept. 13	06:00 AM	24.0	84.0	155	18
   Sept. 13	06:00 PM	25.0	86.0	160	15
   Sept 13	09:00 PM	26.0	87.0	166	20
   Sept.14	03:00AM	28.0	89.0	166	20
   Sept. 14	06:00 AM	28.5	88.0	167	18
   Sept 14	12:00 PM	28.5	84.0	165	20
   Sept. 14	06:00 PM	28.5	83.0	160	15
   Sept. 15	01:00 AM	28.5	81.5	135	15
   Sept 15	06:00 AM	30.5	81.0	135	15
   Sept. 15	12:00 PM	32.0	80.0	135	20
   Sept 15	06:00 PM	34.5	78.5	133	25
   Sept. 16	00:00 AM	35.0	77.0	125	30
   Sept. 16	06:00 AM	37.0	76.0	110	35
   Sept. 16	12:00 PM	38.0	75.0	105	38
   Sept. 16	6:00 PM	39.0	73.0	65	35

   
   

2. After you have plotted all of the points on the map, connect the points with lines using the following color codes: (1 point) 
   

   Wind Velocity (miles/hr)	Safir-Simpson Scale Category	Minimum Storm Surge Height near Landfall (feet)	Line Color
   39-73	Tropical Storm		Black
   74-110	1 - 2	4	Green
   111-130	3	9	Blue
   131-155	4	13	Orange
   >155	5	18	Red

   
   Note that information to help answer these questions that follow is contained in your lecture notes. Make sure you turn the map in with your homework.
   
   
3. What was the likely minimum height of the storm surge at Tampa Florida on the afternoon of Sept 14? (1 point) 
   
   
4. What were the maximum sustained winds at Tampa Florida during the evening of Sept 14?  (Be sure to take into account both wind velocity and storm center velocity)  1 point) 
   
   
5. What were the maximum sustained winds on the Florida Gulf Coast at 29.0 North latitude during the evening of Sept 14? (1 point) 
   
   
6. As the Hurricane crossed Florida between Tampa and Orlando it lost intensity.  Explain why this is occurred. (1 point) 
   
   
7. Describe what the weather would have been like in Disney World (Orlando, Florida, 28.5^oN, 81.5^oW) at exactly 1:00 AM on Sept. 15. (1 point) 
   
   
8. What would have been the maximum sustained wind speed at Jacksonville, Florida, as the Hurricane passed by there on Sept. 15? (1 point) 
   
   
9. Hurricane tracks can be described as coast-normal and coast-parallel.   What kind of track did the storm take with respect to the west coast of Florida during most of the day on Sept. 14?  What kind of track did the storm during the afternoon of  Sept. 15? (1 point) 
   
   
10. What would have been the minimum storm surge at Wilmington, North Carolina just before the storm hit there? (1 point) 
    
    
11. New Orleans is located at 30^o North Latitude, 90^o West Longitude.  What would the National Hurricane Center have been saying about New Orleans after the report of the hurricane's location and storm center velocity on Sept. 14 at 03:00 hours?  (0.5 point) What would have been the wisest thing you could have possibly done if you were living in New Orleans at this time? Why? (0.5 point) 
    
    
12. In the year Hurricane Hunter occurred (which year is irrelevant), how many named tropical storms/hurricanes had occurred in the Atlantic prior to this storm? (2 points) 
    

2. Visit the National Hurricane Center web site at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/,    Find the answers to the following questions (hint - many, but not all,  answers can be found in the Most Extreme and Frequent Questions sections):  
   
   1. List the 10 Hurricanes that have caused the most deaths in the United States since 1900.   Give the estimated death toll for each. Make sure you only include hurricanes since 1900 (1 point) 
      
      
   2. List the top ten hurricanes that have been the most costly in the U.S. between 1900 and 2017.   Give the name of the storm, states affected, year of the storm, and dollar amounts in 2017 dollars for each.  (1 point) 
      
      
   3. During a hurricane are you supposed to have the windows and doors on the storm side closed and the windows and doors on the lee side open?  Explain your answer. (1 point) 
      
      
   4. In the southern Atlantic Ocean, hurricanes are almost non-existent.  What reasons can you find for this?  (1 point) 
       
   5. Why do hurricanes hit the East coast of the U.S., but not the West coast? (1 point)
       
   6. Has a hurricane ever hit the west coast of the United States?  If so, where, and when what are the implications of this considering the earth appears to be undergoing a warming cycle? (1 point)
       
   7. What are the chances (probability) that New Orleans will receive a direct hit from a hurricane or tropical storm in any given year? (1 point). 
       
   8. Which part of the United States has the highest probability of direct hit from a hurricane or tropical storm in any given year? (1 point)  
      
      

3. The followign questions concern the 2017 hurricane season.
   

    

   1. This hurricane season set a record for the costliest season on record. What was the total cost of  dmages in the 2017 season? (1 point) 
       
   2. Describe the three storms that produced the most damage in terms of their names, locations, dates of landfall, the type of damage they produced (rain, surge, or wind), number of causaltes, and cost of damage? (6 points)
        

4. Because you are now living n New Orleans which suffered a devastating disaster in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina, it is important to have a better understanding of this disaster because it is still affecting the city and will do so for a long time into the future. Still, there is much misinformation that is still being circulated about the disaster. Your instructor has published a paper about some of this misinformation (he refers to this as myths) and you can read the paper at the following link: http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Katrina/Myths_of_Katrina.pdf . After reading the paper answer the following questions:
   
   
   1. What are the 5 myths discussed by Nelson in the article? (2 points)
      
      
   2. Which of these myths (if any) did you personally believe before reading this article? (1 point)
      
      
   3. Why should anyone believe Nelson over what they have heard or read elsewhere?(1 point)
      
      
5. The president of Denyallclaims Insurance Company, I. Won Pei, is considering moving into the state of Oklahoma hoping to make some excessive profits by selling a lot of tornado insurance.  He is in the process of writing a prospectus for the board of directors, but has some questions about tornadoes.  He asks you for answers to these questions, knowing that you have taken a course on natural disasters.  Because you see this as an opportunity to get a promotion to a coveted position as regional manager in La Conchita, California, you willing agree to provide the answers to his questions.   You know that the answers probably can be found on internet at sites like - https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/tornadoes/ and the NOAA tornado FAQ page-http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/index.html so you go to these sites to find the answers to the following questions:
   
   
   1. What is the difference between a water spout and a tornado?  (1 point) 
      
      
   2. How long can a tornado last? (1 point)
       
      
   3. Which is the most important energy source in a tornado? (1 point)
      
      
   4. Why are tornadoes most frequent in the afternoon and evening? (1 point)
      
      
   5. What is the maximum death toll from a single tornado in the U.S.? (1 point) 
      
      
   6. Where and when did this occur, and what was the estimated cost of the damages (in current dollars)? (1 point)  
      
      
   7. Is it true that one of the safest places to go if you are on the highway during a tornado is under a bridge or highway overpass? Explain your answer. (1 point)