Hugh Edward Willoughby
Dr.
Willoughby is a Research Professor and Senior Scientist with the International
Hurricane Research Center at Florida International University. Until December
2002 he was a Research Meteorologist at the Hurricane Research Division of
NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, where he had worked
since 1975 and served as Director from June 1995 until July 2002. His research
interests include analysis of instrumented aircraft observations of hurricanes
and formulation of theoretical models of tropical–cyclone motion and
intensification. He made more than 400 research and reconnaissance flights into
the eyes of typhoons and hurricanes. During his time at HRD, he occupied the G.
J. Haltiner Visiting Research Chair at the Naval Postgraduate School
(January–July, 1991); was a Visiting Research Scientist at the Bureau of
Meteorology Research Centre in Melbourne, Australia (June–July, 1988); and was a
Visiting Lecturer at the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (December 1985).
Before joining HRD, Dr. Willoughby was a commissioned officer in the U. S. Navy. He served as a flight meteorologist in Airborne Early Warning Squadron ONE (1970–1971) and on the Military faculty of the Naval Academy (1971–1974), where he taught meteorology, oceanography, geology, and computer science. He left active duty as a Lieutenant (O3).
Dr. Willoughby has the following academic degrees: Ph.D. (1977, Atmospheric Science) from the University of Miami, M.S. (1969, Meteorology) from the Naval Postgraduate School, and B.S.(1967, Geophysics–Geochemistry) from the University of Arizona. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society and a member of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Geophysical Union, and Sigma Xi. He is past chair the AMS Committee on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.
Hurricanes: Human and Economic Impact
Between 1952 and 1992, hurricanes were the leading natural cause of property damage. They accounted for two thirds of the weather-related losses and more than twice as much destruction as earthquakes (van der Vink et al. 1998).
Nonetheless, risk of dying from a hurricane in the U.S. decreased by a factor of 100 during the 20th century because of two key factors: rarity of landfalls by the most intense hurricanes after 1970, and successful implementation of timely evacuation from the storm surge zone. While high winds do kill, they are not an overwhelming threat to life. In recent years, fresh-water flooding from torrential hurricane rains has been more deadly than storm surge (Rappaport 2000). Consequently, hurricanes have claimed an average of just 20 lives annually in the U.S. since 1970. Experience elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere has been less positive. For example, Hurricane Mitch of 1998 reportedly killed more than 10,000 in Central America by drowning in flash floods. The inadequate response of Florida Keys residents to warnings of Hurricane Georges in 1998 could have resulted in thousands of fatalities if the storm had been stronger, instead of weaker, than forecast. Thus, North Americans may not be as immune to hurricane disasters as they appear to be.
Despite consistent success in reduction of hurricane fatalities, projected economic losses are staggering. Property damage currently averages $5B annually in the U.S. (Pielke and Landsea 1998). This figure doubles every nine years because of increasing population, inflation, and individual wealth. Major hurricanes (those in Categories 3, 4, and 5 with winds > 50 m s-1) account for 80% of the damage, even though they represent only 20% of the landfalls. Policy makers should plan for a $100B hurricane landfall when a category 4 or 5 hurricane finally passes over the center of a 21st century coastal city. The threat is escalating due to increased exposure, and not due to increased hurricane landfalls (Pielke and Pielke 1997), which have declined significantly (and ostensibly temporarily) from the levels experienced during the middle third of the 20th century. Observed changes in ocean thermohaline circulation are expected to cause more frequent major hurricane landfalls during the next 20-30 years (Goldenberg et al. 2001). If this prediction comes to pass, it will provoke crises in construction, land use, disaster recovery, public health, and especially windstorm insurance.
References:
Goldenberg, S. B., C.W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez and W.M. Gray, 2001:The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications, Science, 293,474-479.
Pielke, R. A., and C. W. Landsea, 1998: Normalized hurricane damages in the United States, Wea. Forecasting, 13, 621–631.
Pielke, R. A., Jr. and R. A. Pielke, Sr. 1997: Hurricanes, Their Nature and Impacts on Society. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, 279 pp.
Rappaport, E. N., 2000: Loss of life in the United Stated associated with recent tropical cyclones, Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 2065–2073.
Van der Vink, R. M., and coauthors, 1998: Why the United States is Becoming More Vulnerable to Natural Disasters, EOS, 79, 533.
Recent Publications
Rogers, R, S. Chen, J. Tenerelli, and H. Willoughby, 2002: A numerical study of vertical shear on the distribution of rainfall in Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Mon. Wea. Rev., (in press)
Willoughby, H. E., 2002: Chapter 10: Improvements in Observations, Models and Forecasts, in HURRICANE! Coping with Disaster, edited by R. H. Simpson, R. A. Anthes, and M. Garstang, American Geophysical Union, pp. 205-216.
Black, M. L., J. F. Gamache, F. D. Marks, C. E. Samsury, and H. E. Willoughby, 2002: Eastern–Pacific Hurricanes Jimena of 1991 and Olivia of 1994:The effects of vertical shear on structure and intensity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2291-2312.
Willoughby, H. E. and R. W. Jones, 2001: Nonlinear Motion of a Barotropic Vortex In Still Air and in an Environmental Zonal Flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1907–1923.
Willoughby, H. E., 1998: Tropical Cyclone Eye Thermodynamics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 3053–3067.
Molainari, J., S. Skubis, D. Vollaro, F. Alsheimer, and H. E. Willoughby, 1998: Potential vorticity analysis of tropical cyclone intensification, J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 2632–2644.
Willoughby, H. E., and P. G. Black, 1996: Hurricane Andrew in Florida: Dynamics of a Disaster. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 543–549.
Willoughby, H. E., 1995: Normal–mode initialization of barotropic vortex–motion models. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 4501–4514.