Robert R. Twilley
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Ecological Forecasting and Engineering Principles: Meeting the Science Needs of Coastal Restoration Louisiana is experiencing the most critical coastal wetland erosion and land loss problem in the United States. This challenge will require new partnerships in coastal science (natural, physical and social sciences) and engineering, including new approaches in dynamically developed system analysis to truly integrate ecosystem restoration programs in concert with naturally occurring coastal hazards. Increased control of the Mississippi River over the last 50 years has resulted in unintended consequences by not adequately managing this engineered ecosystem. Opportunities now exist to rehabilitate and sustain this immensely important coastal resource; but will require new operationally define systems that can balance engineering design, coastal system response, and social risk management. The Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive Ecosystem Restoration study was establish to develop a conceptual framework to focus an intense effort to rehabilitate this degrading coastal zone. Restoration is predicated on an understanding of ecosystem succession; and ecosystem trajectories require causal linkages between disturbances, ecological effects, and ecosystem response. To meet these challenges in developing a restoration program, we developed the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) model. The challenge was to build a tool that could develop systems ecology (with both conceptual and numerical models) to forecast ecosystem response to different elements of engineering design. These tools included a combination of hydrodynamic and ecological modeling that predicted the endpoints of salinity, hydroperiod, and in some cases, sediment distribution. From these geophysical footprints, ecological conceptual models were used to estimate ecosystem response. This science support system is used to evaluate environmental benefits of different alternatives as part of the comprehensive restoration plan. This work provides a tool by which alternatives of engineering design may be linked to ecological response to reduce scientific uncertainty of decisions associated with coastwide restoration planning process. Developing interdisciplinary programs in coastal systems ecology and engineering offers the opportunities to reduce the high rates of land loss and rehabilitate degraded natural resources in this unique river delta region. The development of this framework supports a strong adaptive management format as part of the comprehensive restoration plan, so that these hypotheses and assumptions will be continuously evaluated to incrementally reduce scientific uncertainty associated with social risk management. |
Contact Information: Robert R. Twilley, Director, Wetland Biogeochemistry Institute, Department of Oceanography and Coastal Science, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803; Email: rtwilley@lsu.edu; Phone (1): 225 578 8806, Phone (2): 225 578 6431; Fax: 225 578 6423